Lead Ingot Inventory Decline May Slow Down, Lead Prices Maintain Fluctuating Trend [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,998/mt, fluctuating downward during the Asian session. Entering the European session, it dipped to a low of $1,997.5/mt, then rebounded and fluctuated upward after touching the low, rallying towards the close to probe a high of $2,018/mt, finally settling at $2,009/mt, a gain of 0.32%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2511 contract opened at 17,100 yuan/mt. It fluctuated downward at the beginning of the session, probing a low of 17,075 yuan/mt. With bulls increasing their positions, SHFE lead rebounded and rose to touch a high of 17,130 yuan/mt, finally settling at 17,125 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.09%.

On the macro front:

The US Q2 GDP was significantly revised upward to growth of 3.8%, a two-year high, with the previous value at 3.3%; US initial jobless claims for the week ending September 20 came in at 218,000, the lowest since the week of July 19, 2025, with the prior value revised from 231,000 to 232,000.

According to Interfax: Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak said Russia will ban traders from exporting diesel, and the diesel export restrictions will last until the year-end. Russia will also extend the gasoline export ban until the year-end.

Ministry of Commerce: Regarding soybean trade, the US should take positive actions to cancel the relevant unreasonable tariffs. Firmly opposed to the "involution" style competition in the copper smelting industry, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNIA) held a meeting. The 2025 National Day cultural and tourism consumption month activity launched nationwide, distributing over 480 million yuan in consumption subsidies.

:

SHFE lead showed a trend of fluctuating at highs. Most suppliers refused to budge on prices while selling. Quotations for warrant cargoes in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai were firm. Meanwhile, the supply of circulating cargoes in the spot market increased, and some suppliers expanded their quoted discounts. Mainstream production area quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 25 yuan/mt to premiums of 80 yuan/mt ex-factory. In the secondary lead sector, supply gradually increased. Secondary refined lead quotations against the SMM #1 lead average price were at discounts of 100-0 yuan/mt. Quotations around major consumption areas were particularly firm. Downstream enterprises maintained purchasing as needed. The trading activity of cargoes self-picked up from the production site was better than that of warrant cargoes in some regions.

Inventory: On September 25, LME lead inventory decreased by 175 mt to 219,550 mt. As of September 25, the total social inventory of lead ingots across five regions tracked by SMM fell to 46,400 mt, down 8,400 mt from September 22.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

As the Mid-Autumn Festival & National Day holiday approached, downstream enterprises continued stockpiling lead ingots, and market trading activity was moderate. Concurrently, some lead smelters, particularly in northern regions, gradually resumed production after maintenance, making the supply of circulating cargoes relatively higher WoW. However, the production resumption of lead smelters in Anhui, the largest secondary lead production area, was slower than expected, leaving some regional supply tightness. Some downstream enterprises turned to receiving cargoes near warehouses, leading to a further decline in social inventory of lead ingots to a four-month low. Next week, as primary lead and secondary lead enterprises gradually resume production and a small amount of imported crude lead arrives at ports, supply is expected to continue recovering. Meanwhile, most downstream enterprises have completed pre-holiday stockpiling, retaining only a certain level of just-in-time procurement going forward. The decline in lead ingot inventory may slow down, and lead prices are likely to maintain a fluctuating trend.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, and are for reference only, not constituting decision-making advice.